Currently on a trip around the world and what do I see as I walk into a book store in downtown Sydney?(where btw the word "tough times" is mentioned 100 times a day but shops and restaurants are full)
Harry S Dent Jr.'s new book "The great depression ahead" on the bestseller list. Just had a quick glance through it but it seems like Mr. Dent is predicting an over decade long bear market with something even worse after. Next bull market around 2025. Wow. But wait a second. Is that the SAME Harry S Dent Jr. who wrote " The Roaring 2000s" back in the late 90ies? Who predicted a Dow at 30,000 by 2009? New paradigm, Internet productivity and all that? It is indeed him. (interestingly enough he - or his publisher - prides himself with his excellent late 90ies forecast; human memory is indeed very short)
Now, maybe he was just unlucky back in the 90ies and this time his thesis is sound. But if not (and having read the original "Roaring 2000s" i don't think he's got that much to say) we're witnessing one of the world's biggest bulls turn into one of the biggest bears. And that tells you a couple of things. 1) the world is coming to an end is consensus and 2)Mr. Dent is a very cunning salesman with a good sense of how to hit people's nerves.
I remember an anecdote from one of my good friends in the business. He was covering Semi stocks in Europe at the time and told me that a taxi driver had asked him about Rambus ( a US company with patents for DRAM production) and how much further the stock would go. This was a Turkish taxi driver in Frankfurt invested in a small, highly specialised company in an obscure industry with a reputation for very low returns. Half the US professional investors don't understand what they do. Unsurprisingly share price collapsed a couple of months after.
I don't want to call Mr. Dent a clueless cab driver but when I see this kind of book, by this kind of author on the bestselling shelf I conclude that we are at the bottom of sentiment.
PS: Sydney is nice and warm
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
you were overdue for a blog, glad to see you're back. I'd put spare money into the market now but don't think I'll miss much by doing it later this year, either.
Post a Comment